Propagation of Epidemics Along Lines with Fast Diffusion
- Materials ScienceBulletin of mathematical biology
A new simple model of propagation of epidemics which exhibits this effect and allows for a quantitative analysis, and establishes the existence of a minimal spreading speed and shows that it may be quite large, even when the basic reproduction number is 12pts.
Spatially‐explicit models for exploring COVID‐19 lockdown strategies
- SociologyTrans. GIS
Two spatially‐explicit models created to allow experimentation with different societal responses to the COVID19 pandemic conclude that explicitly regionalised models for mitigation provide significant advantages over a ‘one size fits all' approach.
Demographic and environmental drivers of metagenomic viral diversity in vampire bats
- Environmental ScienceMolecular ecology
Results establish the value of linking the modern influx of metagenomic sequence data with comparative ecology, reveal that snapshot views of viral diversity are unlikely to be representative at the species level, and affirm existing ecological theories that link host ecology not only to single pathogen dynamics but also to viral communities.
- Biology, Environmental ScienceDora Bruder
The spatiotemporal dynamics of infection in human and domestic systems are of particular academic interest because of the wealth of data combined with well-described natural histories and an extended metapopulation paradigm is central to infectious disease dynamics.
Outfoxing rabies: robust vaccination designs for disease elimination
A rich and highly resolved spatial dataset of fox rabies cases and ORV efforts over three decades in Germany and neighbouring countries is analysed to answer two pivotal questions in infectious disease ecology: what are the underlying determinants of disease persistence, and how can vaccination strategies be optimized to eliminate infection.
wild mammal populations The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in Supplementary data tml
The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations
- Environmental ScienceProceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Stochastic epidemiological models are used to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population and predicted that the critical community size (CCS) can vary by more than two orders of magnitude.
The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation
- BiologyEpidemiology and Infection
20 years of incidence reports from Mexico are used to identify variation in seasonal forcing and magnitude of transmission across the country and to explore determinants of inter-annual variability in epidemic magnitude in rubella.
Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles
- Environmental ScienceJournal of The Royal Society Interface
It is demonstrated that, no matter the choice of persistence measure, appropriately parametrized models of measles demonstrate similar predictions for the level of the CCS, and two new statistical measures of persitence are introduced—fade-outs post epidemic and fade-out post invasion.