Mathematical models in the evaluation of health programmes.

@article{Garnett2011MathematicalMI,
  title={Mathematical models in the evaluation of health programmes.},
  author={Geoffrey P. Garnett and Simon Nicholas Cousens and Timothy B Hallett and Richard S Steketee and Neff Walker},
  journal={Lancet},
  year={2011},
  volume={378 9790},
  pages={515-25}
}
Modelling is valuable in the planning and evaluation of interventions, especially when a controlled trial is ethically or logistically impossible. Models are often used to calculate the expected course of events in the absence of more formal assessments. They are also used to derive estimates of rare or future events from recorded intermediate points. When developing models, decisions are needed about the appropriate level of complexity to be represented and about model structure and… CONTINUE READING
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