Many possible maximum lifespan trajectories

@article{Hughes2017ManyPM,
  title={Many possible maximum lifespan trajectories},
  author={Bryan G. Hughes and Siegfried Hekimi},
  journal={Nature},
  year={2017},
  volume={546},
  pages={E8-E9}
}
The recent Letter by Dong et al.1 analysed demographic trends to claim that there is a biological limit to maximum human lifespan (approximately 115 years). Although this claim is not novel—AnteroJacquemin et al. also identified a biological ‘barrier’ at 115 years2—the methodology that the authors used is. Here we show that the analysis presented by Dong et al.1 does not allow the distinction between the hypothesis that maximum human lifespan is approximately 115 years and the null hypothesis… 

Dong et al. reply

The analysis presented by Dong et al.1 does not allow the distinction between the hypothesis thatmaximum human lifespan is approximately 115 years and the null hypothesis that maximum lifespan will continue to increase, and here the critical effects of the assumptions made by the authors are analysed.

Dong et al. reply

The results of Dong et al.1 suggest that there might be a limit to human lifespan, but it is believed that their results provide no evidence.

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References

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Evidence for a limit to human lifespan

It is shown that improvements in survival with age tend to decline after age 100, and that the age at death of the world’s oldest person has not increased since the 1990s, which strongly suggest that the maximum lifespan of humans is fixed and subject to natural constraints.

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians

The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic “barrier” forecast.

The International Database on Longevity: Structure and contents

The International Database on Longevity contains exhaustive information on validated cases of supercentenarians that allows unbiased estimates of mortality after age 110, including the different categories of age-validation procedures.

Many possible maximum lifespan trajectories

The analysis presented by Dong et al.1 does not allow the distinction between the hypothesis thatmaximum human lifespan is approximately 115 years and the null hypothesis that maximum lifespan will continue to increase, and here the critical effects of the assumptions made by the authors are analysed.