Manipulability of comparative tests.

  title={Manipulability of comparative tests.},
  author={Wojciech Olszewski and Alvaro Sandroni},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume={106 13},
Multiple self-proclaimed experts claim that they know the probabilities of future events. A tester does not know the odds of future events and she also does not know whether, among the multiple experts, there are some who do know the relevant probabilities. So the tester requires each expert to announce, before any data are observed, the probabilities of all future events. A test either rejects or does not reject each expert based on the observed data and the profile of the probabilities… CONTINUE READING