Manifesto from Dagstuhl Perspectives Workshop 17442 - From Evaluating to Forecasting Performance: How to Turn Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing and Recommender Systems into Predictive Sciences

  title={Manifesto from Dagstuhl Perspectives Workshop 17442 - From Evaluating to Forecasting Performance: How to Turn Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing and Recommender Systems into Predictive Sciences},
  author={N. Ferro and Fuhr Norbert and Grefenstette Gregory and Joseph A. Konstan and Castells Pablo and Elizabeth M. Daly and Declerck Thierry and Michael D. Ekstrand and Geyer Werner and Gonzalo Julio and Kuflik Tsvi and Lind{\'e}n Krister and Ma. Theresa H. Bernardo and Nie Jian-yun and Perego Raffaele and Bracha Shapira and Soboroff Ian and Tintarev Nava and Verspoor Karin and Martijn C. Willemsen and Zobel Justin},
We describe the state-of-the-art in performance modeling and prediction for Information Retrieval (IR), Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Recommender Systems (RecSys) along with its shortcomings and strengths. We present a framework for further research, identifying five major problem areas: understanding measures, performance analysis, making underlying assumptions explicit, identifying application features determining performance, and the development of prediction models describing the… 

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