Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries

@article{Kontis2020MagnitudeDA,
  title={Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries},
  author={Vasilis Kontis and James E Bennett and Theo Rashid and Robbie M. Parks and Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard and Michel Guillot and Perviz Asaria and Bin Zhou and Marco Battaglini and Gianni Corsetti and Martin Mckee and Mariachiara Di Cesare and Colin D. Mathers and Majid Ezzati},
  journal={Nature Medicine},
  year={2020},
  volume={26},
  pages={1919-1928}
}
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100–231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths… 
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