Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

@article{Furceri2018MacroeconomicCO,
  title={Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs},
  author={Davide Furceri and Swarnali Ahmed Hannan and Jonathan David Ostry and Andrew K. Rose},
  journal={PSN: Trade Policy (Topic)},
  year={2018}
}
We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on… 

N ° 2021-25 Tariffs and Macroeconomic Dynamics December 2021

This paper studies the macroeconomic impact of higher tariffs using a two-country DSGE model with endogenous trade and heterogeneous firms. The analysis consists of two scenarios. First, we assume

Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries☆

Protectionism and the Business Cycle

Endogenous Trade Protection and Exchange Rate Adjustment

This paper explores the relationship between exchange rate adjustment and trade policy in a simple New Keynesian open economy macro model. We show that movement in exchange rates have a direct

The Demand for Trade Protection over the Business Cycle

We build measures of the demand for trade protection, and relate it to permanent productivity and transitory monetary policy shocks identified from the U.S. monthly and quarterly data. The demand for

The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Emerging Market Economies

We investigate the economic effects of U.S. trade policy uncertainty on the economies of emerging markets (EMs). We estimate a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model that combines individual

To What Extent are Tariffs Offset by Exchange Rates?

  • O. Jeanne
  • Economics
    SSRN Electronic Journal
  • 2020
In theory, we should expect tariffs to be partially offset by a currency appreciation in the tariff-imposing country or by a depreciation in the country on which the tariff is imposed. We find, based

THE DRIVERS OF BILATERAL TRADE AND THE SPILLOVERS FROM TARIFFS 4

  • Economics
  • 2019
International Monetary Fund | April 2019 The presence of large and rising bilateral trade balances has raised concerns that asymmetric obstacles to trade may distort the international trade system.

Tariff Protectionist Measures and Spanish Goods Exports

The rise in global protectionist tensions in recent years has, after decades of across-the-board declines, entailed increases in tariffs that are proving detrimental to international trade and

Trade Wars, Currency Wars

For most of the post WWII period, until recently, trade protectionism followed a downward trend, and was formulated in multilateral or bilateral agreements between countries. Recently however, there

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 34 REFERENCES

Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy

In this paper, we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output for a large number of OECD countries. Following the methodology in Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a,

Protectionism and the Business Cycle

Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization

This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country-industry level for a broad range of countries over

Trade Liberalization and Firm Productivity: The Case of India

Abstract This paper exploits India's rapid, comprehensive, and externally imposed trade reform to establish a causal link between changes in tariffs and firm productivity. Pro-competitive forces,

Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia

This paper estimates the effects of trade liberalization on plant productivity. In contrast to previous studies, we distinguish between productivity gains arising from lower tariffs on final goods

The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports and the Balance of Payments of Developing Countries

This paper uses panel data and times series/cross section analysis to estimate the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth, import growth, the balance of trade and the balance of payments for

Productivity and Firm Selection: Quantifying the ‘New’ Gains from Trade

We discuss how standard computable equilibrium models of trade policy can be enriched with selection effects. This is achieved by estimating and simulating a partial equilibrium model that accounts

Tariff Incidence: Evidence from U.S. Sugar Duties, 1890-1930

Direct empirical evidence on whether domestic consumers or foreign exporters bear the burden of a country's import duties is scarce. This paper examines the incidence of U.S. sugar duties using a

Distance, Trade, and Income - the 1967 to 1975 Closing of the Suez Canal as a Natural Experiment

The negative effect of distance on bilateral trade is one of the most robust findings in international trade. However, the underlying causes of this negative relationship are less well understood.