Looking Backward and Forward on Hindsight Bias

@inproceedings{Bernstein2016LookingBA,
  title={Looking Backward and Forward on Hindsight Bias},
  author={Daniel M Bernstein and Andr{\'e} A{\ss}falg and Ragav Kumar and Rakefet Ackerman},
  year={2016}
}
The same event that appeared unpredictable in foresight can be judged as predictable in hindsight. Hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life, including legal decisions, medical diagnoses, consumer satisfaction, sporting events, and election outcomes. We discuss three theoretical constructs related to hindsight bias: memory, reconstruction bias, and motivation. Attempts to recall foresight knowledge fail because newly acquired knowledge affects memory either directly or indirectly by… 

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