Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica

  title={Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica},
  author={Josef Ludescher and Armin Bunde and Christian L. E. Franzke and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber},
  journal={Climate Dynamics},
Previous estimates of the strength and the uncertainty of the observed Antarctic temperature trends assumed that the natural annual temperature fluctuations can be represented by an auto-regressive process of first order [AR(1)]. Here we find that this hypothesis is inadequate. We consider the longest observational temperature records in Antarctica and show that their variability is better represented by a long-term persistent process that has a propensity of large and enduring natural… Expand

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