Long term impact risk for (101955) 1999 RQ36

  title={Long term impact risk for (101955) 1999 RQ36},
  author={Andrea Milani and Steven R. Chesley and Maria Eugenia Sansaturio and Fabrizio Bernardi and G B Valsecchi and Oscar Arratia},
Abstract The potentially hazardous Asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ 36 has a possibility of colliding with the Earth in the latter half of the 22nd century, well beyond the traditional 100-year time horizon for routine impact monitoring. The probabilities accumulate to a total impact probability of approximately 10 - 3 , with a pair of closely related routes to impact in 2182 comprising more than half of the total. The analysis of impact possibilities so far in the future is strongly dependent on the… Expand
Yarkovsky-driven impact risk analysis for asteroid (99942) Apophis
We assess the risk of an Earth impact for asteroid (99942) Apophis by means of a statistical analysis accounting for the uncertainty of both the orbital solution and the Yarkovsky effect. We selectExpand
The Potentially Dangerous Asteroid (101955) Bennu
We computed impact solutions of the potentially dangerous asteroid (101955) Bennu based on 569 optical observations from September 11.40624 UTC, 1999 to January 20.11189 UTC, 2013, and 29 radarExpand
Near-Earth Asteroid impact dates: A Reference Ideal Method (RIM) approach
A novel methodology to rank the impact dates of NEAs based on the data provided by Sentry is applied, via a novel Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method named the Reference Ideal Method (RIM). Expand
Hazardous asteroid mitigation: campaign planning and credibility analysis
Of all the natural hazards that could befall on Earth, only an Earth impact of a large comet or asteroid has the potential to wipe out the entire civilisation in a single event while that of a smallExpand
Impact hazard monitoring: theory and implementation
  • D. Farnocchia
  • Computer Science
  • Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union
  • 2015
Keyhole maps are described as a tool to go beyond strongly scattering encounters and how to account for nongravitational perturbations, especially the Yarkovsky effect, when their contribution is the main source of prediction uncertainty. Expand
The origin of asteroid 101955 (1999 RQ36)
Near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 101955 (1999 RQ36; henceforth RQ36) is especially accessible to spacecraft and is the primary target of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission; it is also a potentiallyExpand
Near Earth Asteroids with measurable Yarkovsky effect
Abstract We seek evidence of the Yarkovsky effect among Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by measuring the Yarkovsky-related orbital drift from the orbital fit. To prevent the occurrence of unreliableExpand
Near-Earth object hazardous impact: A Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach
This work proposes the first Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approach to classify hazardous NEOs, which allows the classification of NEOs by descending order of their TOPSIS ratio, a single quantity that contains all the relevant information for each object. Expand
Detecting the Yarkovsky effect with the Gaia mission: list of the most promising candidates
The European Space Agency astrometric Gaia mission, due for a launch in late 2012, will observe a large number of asteroids (>250000 to V = 20mag) over five years with an unprecedented positionalExpand
Required deflection impulses as a function of time before impact for Earth-impacting asteroids
Abstract For any asteroid on an impact trajectory, the amount of time prior to impact a deflection can be implemented can drastically change the amount of deflection impulse required. In this studyExpand


Potential impact detection for Near-Earth asteroids: the case of 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)
  • S. Chesley
  • Geology
  • Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union
  • 2005
Orbit determination for Near-Earth Asteroids presents unique technical challenges due to the imperative of early detection and careful assessment of the risk posed by specific Earth close approaches.Expand
Nonlinear impact monitoring: line of variation searches for impactors
Abstract When a new near Earth asteroid is discovered, it is important to know whether or not there is the possibility of an impact with the Earth in the near future. In this paper, we describe theExpand
Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis
Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029.Expand
Yarkovsky Effect on Small Near-Earth Asteroids: Mathematical Formulation and Examples
The Yarkovsky effect is a subtle nongravitational phenomenon related to the anisotropic thermal emission of Solar System objects. Its importance has been recently demonstrated in relation to theExpand
The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop
Impacts by Earth-approaching asteroids and comets pose a significant hazard to life and property. Although the annual probability of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid or comet is extremelyExpand
Virtual Impactors: Search and Destroy
Abstract If for an asteroid which has been observed only over a short arc and then lost there are orbits compatible with the observations resulting in collisions, recovery would be desirable toExpand
Asteroid close encounters with Earth: risk assessment
Abstract When an asteroid with an orbit close to the Earth is observed only over a short arc, there is no way to accurately predict the future close approaches. The first approach could change theExpand
Close approaches of asteroid 1999 AN10: resonant and non-resonant returns
The Earth passes very close to the orbit of the asteroid 1999 AN10 twice per year, but whether or not this asteroid can have a close approach depends upon the timing of its passage across theExpand
Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction
Integration of the orbit of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, which is based on radar and optical measurements spanning 51 years, reveals a 20-minute interval in March 2880 when there could be aExpand
Multiple solutions for asteroid orbits: Computational procedure and applications
We describe the Multiple Solutions Method, a one-dimensional sampling of the six-dimensional orbital confidence region that is widely applicable in the field of asteroid orbit determination. In manyExpand