Long-term Price Range Forecast Applied to Risk Management Using Regression Models

  title={Long-term Price Range Forecast Applied to Risk Management Using Regression Models},
  author={Filipe Azevedo and Z. Vale and P.B.M. Oliveira},
  journal={2007 International Conference on Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems},
Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level… CONTINUE READING


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