Limits to Causal Inference with State-Space Reconstruction for Infectious Disease

  title={Limits to Causal Inference with State-Space Reconstruction for Infectious Disease},
  author={S. Cobey and Edward B. Baskerville},
  journal={PLoS ONE},
  • S. Cobey, Edward B. Baskerville
  • Published 2016
  • Computer Science, Medicine, Biology
  • PLoS ONE
  • Infectious diseases are notorious for their complex dynamics, which make it difficult to fit models to test hypotheses. Methods based on state-space reconstruction have been proposed to infer causal interactions in noisy, nonlinear dynamical systems. These “model-free” methods are collectively known as convergent cross-mapping (CCM). Although CCM has theoretical support, natural systems routinely violate its assumptions. To identify the practical limits of causal inference under CCM, we… CONTINUE READING
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