Limits of epidemic prediction using SIR models

  title={Limits of epidemic prediction using SIR models},
  author={Omar Melikechi and Alexander L. Young and Tao-Qian Tang and Trevor Bowman and David B. Dunson and James E. Johndrow},
  journal={Journal of Mathematical Biology},
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the model parameters based on noisy observations early in the outbreak, well before the epidemic reaches its peak. This allows prediction of the subsequent course of the epidemic and design of appropriate interventions. However, accurately inferring SIR model… 



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