# Likelihood-based solution to the Monty Hall puzzle and a related 3-prisoner paradox

@article{Pawitan2020LikelihoodbasedST, title={Likelihood-based solution to the Monty Hall puzzle and a related 3-prisoner paradox}, author={Yudi Pawitan}, journal={arXiv: Other Statistics}, year={2020} }

The Monty Hall puzzle has been solved and dissected in many ways, but always using probabilistic arguments, so it is considered a probability puzzle. In this paper the puzzle is set up as an orthodox statistical problem involving an unknown parameter, a probability model and an observation. This means we can compute a likelihood function, and the decision to switch corresponds to choosing the maximum likelihood solution. One advantage of the likelihood-based solution is that the reasoning…

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