• Corpus ID: 222140824

Likelihood-based solution to the Monty Hall puzzle and a related 3-prisoner paradox

  title={Likelihood-based solution to the Monty Hall puzzle and a related 3-prisoner paradox},
  author={Yudi Pawitan},
  journal={arXiv: Other Statistics},
  • Y. Pawitan
  • Published 5 October 2020
  • Philosophy
  • arXiv: Other Statistics
The Monty Hall puzzle has been solved and dissected in many ways, but always using probabilistic arguments, so it is considered a probability puzzle. In this paper the puzzle is set up as an orthodox statistical problem involving an unknown parameter, a probability model and an observation. This means we can compute a likelihood function, and the decision to switch corresponds to choosing the maximum likelihood solution. One advantage of the likelihood-based solution is that the reasoning… 



The Monty Hall Problem

A range of solutions to the Monty Hall problem is developed, with the aim of connecting popular (informal) solutions and the formal mathematical solutions of introductory text-books. Under Riemann’s

The Monty Hall problem is not a probability puzzle * (It's a challenge in mathematical modelling)

It is argued that the most common reasoning found in introductory statistics texts, depending on making a number of ``obvious'' or ``natural'' assumptions and then computing a conditional probability, is a classical example of solution driven science.

A Problem in Probability

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In the Greenwich meteorological observations, Table XIII, gives the excess of the arithmetic mean of the daily maximum and minimum over the true mean daily temperature for each day in the year.

A Problem in Probability.

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