Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015)

@article{Willem2017LessonsFA,
  title={Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015)},
  author={Lander Willem and Frederik Verelst and Joke Bilcke and Niel Hens and Philippe Beutels},
  journal={BMC Infectious Diseases},
  year={2017},
  volume={17}
}
BackgroundIndividual-based models (IBMs) are useful to simulate events subject to stochasticity and/or heterogeneity, and have become well established to model the potential (re)emergence of pathogens (e.g., pandemic influenza, bioterrorism). Individual heterogeneity at the host and pathogen level is increasingly documented to influence transmission of endemic diseases and it is well understood that the final stages of elimination strategies for vaccine-preventable childhood diseases (e.g… 

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review

The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption.

SHIVIR - An Agent-Based Model to assess the transmission of COVID-19 in India

An Agent-Based Model, SHIVIR (Susceptible, Infected, Admitted, ICU, Ventilator, Recovered, Immune) that can assess the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions was developed.

Incorporating human dynamic populations in models of infectious disease transmission: a systematic review

An increasing number of infectious disease models consider demographic change in the host population, but the demographic methods and assumptions vary considerably. We carry out a systematic review

Multiscale modeling to explore Ebola vaccination strategies

A within-host viral dynamics model and a between-host network model of Ebola virus infection showing that its transmission characteristics can be faithfully recapitulated are coupled to show that an early, age-group specific, and high coverage vaccination program is the most beneficial.

A Survey of the Individual-Based Model applied in Biomedical and Epidemiology

A literature survey of IBM applied to biomedical and epidemiology research is presented and it is shown that similar side-effects of discretization scheme for compartmental models may also occur in IBM, which requires careful attention.

Future Ramifications of Age-Dependent Immunity Levels for Measles: Explorations in an Individual-Based Model

It is found that, as time progresses, the risk for measles outbreaks increases, and outbreaks tend to be larger, so it is important to not only consider infants when designing strategies for measles elimination, but to also take other age categories into account.

Epidemic Models for COVID-19 during the First Wave from February to May 2020: a Methodological Review

A methodological review of epidemiological models for the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic during the early months of the outbreak from February to May 2020 and an opportunity to witness how the scientific community reacted to this unique situation is provided.

On the reliability of predictions on Covid-19 dynamics: A systematic and critical review of modelling techniques

A global systematic literature review to summarize trends in the modelling techniques used for Covid-19 from January 1st 2020 to June 30th 2020 suggests that while predictions made by the different models are useful to understand the pandemic course and guide policy-making, there should be cautious in their usage.

Global research activity on mathematical modeling of transmission and control of 23 selected infectious disease outbreak

COVID-19 had a strong impact on the number of publications in the field, specifically during the years 2020 and 2021, and HIV/AIDS, coronavirus disease, influenza, and malaria were the most frequently researched diseases.

BETS: The dangers of selection bias in early analyses of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic

A Bayesian nonparametric analysis suggests that about 5% of the symptomatic cases may not development symptoms within 14 days of infection and that men may be much more likely than women to develop symptoms within 2 days of infections.
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 118 REFERENCES

An individual-based network model to evaluate interventions for controlling pneumococcal transmission

It is recommended that strategies to control pneumococcal disease and organism transmission should include reducing the group size in day-care centers, based on the model predictions.

Characterization of the infectious reservoir of malaria with an agent-based model calibrated to age-stratified parasite densities and infectiousness

Proper timing of vector control, seasonal variation in transmission intensity and mass drug campaigns allows lingering population immunity to help drive a region towards elimination.

An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission.

Pneumococcal Transmission and Disease In Silico: A Microsimulation Model of the Indirect Effects of Vaccination

The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high coverage of vaccination and moderate vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage.

Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010–2015)

It is concluded that individual-level models are increasingly used and useful to model behaviour changes, despite recent advancements, that most models are purely theoretical and lack representative data and a validation process.

Reactive strategies for containing developing outbreaks of pandemic influenza

Attack rates and economic costs can be reduced when low-coverage reactive vaccination and limited antiviral use are combined with practical, minimally disruptive social distancing strategies, including short-term, as-needed closure of individual schools, even when vaccine supply-chain-related delays occur.

Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States.

A large-scale stochastic simulation model is introduced and used to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population and suggests that the rapid production and distribution of vaccines could significantly slow disease spread and limit the number ill to <10% of the population, particularly if children are preferentially vaccinated.

Understanding Trends in Pertussis Incidence: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

The observed trends in relative pertussis incidence in Dakota County can be attributed in part to fluctuations in adult immunity and waning vaccine-acquired immunity.

Modelling the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases for Decision Analysis

The number of economic evaluations related to infectious disease topics has increased over the last 2 decades. However, many such evaluations rely on models that do not take into account unique

Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review

Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies and methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and more advanced methods for formal model fitting and sensitivity analyses.
...