Leading Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from Developed Countries

@article{Babeck2012LeadingIO,
  title={Leading Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from Developed Countries},
  author={Jan Babeck{\'y} and Tom{\'a}{\vs} Havr{\'a}nek and Jakub Matĕj̊u and Marek Rusn{\'a}k and Kateřina {\vS}m{\'i}dkov{\'a} and Bořek Va{\vs}{\'i}{\vc}ek},
  journal={ERN: Other Macroeconomics: Prices},
  year={2012}
}
We examine which indicators are most useful in explaining the cost of economic crises in EU and OECD countries between 1970 and 2010. To define the dependent variable we combine a measure of costs to the economy, which consists of the output and employment loss and the fiscal deficit, with a database of crisis occurrence designed specifically for this task. We take into account model uncertainty in two steps. First, for each potential leading indicator we select the relevant prediction horizon… 
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