Leading Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from Developed Countries

@article{Babeck2012LeadingIO,
  title={Leading Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from Developed Countries},
  author={Jan Babeck{\'y} and T. Havr{\'a}nek and J. Matĕj̊u and M. Rusň{\'a}k and Kateřina {\vS}m{\'i}dkov{\'a} and Bořek Va{\vs}{\'i}{\vc}ek},
  journal={Political Economy: Budget},
  year={2012}
}
  • Jan Babecký, T. Havránek, +3 authors Bořek Vašíček
  • Published 2012
  • Economics
  • Political Economy: Budget
  • We examine which indicators are most useful in explaining the cost of economic crises in EU and OECD countries between 1970 and 2010. To define the dependent variable we combine a measure of costs to the economy, which consists of the output and employment loss and the fiscal deficit, with a database of crisis occurrence designed specifically for this task. We take into account model uncertainty in two steps. First, for each potential leading indicator we select the relevant prediction horizon… CONTINUE READING
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