Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land‐based climate‐change mitigation efforts

  title={Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land‐based climate‐change mitigation efforts},
  author={A. Krause and T. Pugh and A. Bayer and W. Li and F. Leung and A. Bondeau and J. Doelman and Florian Humpen{\"o}der and P. Anthoni and B. Bodirsky and P. Ciais and C. M{\"u}ller and G. Murray-Tortarolo and S. Olin and A. Popp and S. Sitch and E. Stehfest and A. Arneth},
  journal={Global Change Biology},
Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of… Expand

Tables and Topics from this paper

Paper Mentions

Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets
Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change and it is shown that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest- based mitigation could be more effective for CO2 removal than bio energy crops with carbon capture and storage. Expand
Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators
Abstract. Land management for carbon storage is discussed as being indispensable for climate change mitigation because of its large potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and toExpand
A regional assessment of land‐based carbon mitigation potentials: Bioenergy, BECCS, reforestation, and forest management
Land‐based solutions are indispensable features of most climate mitigation scenarios. Here we conduct a novel cross‐sectoral assessment of regional carbon mitigation potential by running an ecosystemExpand
Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches
Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes ( fLULCC ) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation.Expand
Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability
Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage. We reviewExpand
Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle
Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC onExpand
Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services
Abstract. Land-use models and integrated assessment models provide scenarios of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes following pathways or storylines related to different socioeconomic andExpand
Constraints and enablers for increasing carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere
Harnessing nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) to help simultaneously achieve climate and conservation goals is an attractive win-win. The contribution of NbCS to climate action relies on bothExpand
Global ecosystems and fire: multi-model assessment of fire-induced tree cover and carbon storage reduction.
This study uses simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi-model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001-2012, and considers the here presented results to be the current best estimate of global fire effects on ecosystems. Expand
Ambiguity in the Land Use Component of Mitigation Contributions Toward the Paris Agreement Goals
Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities, including deforestation and forest restoration, will play an important role in addressing climate change. Countries have stated theirExpand


Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators
Abstract. Land management for carbon storage is discussed as being indispensable for climate change mitigation because of its large potential to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and toExpand
Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management
It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink (ST)wasfirst reported. Themagnitude of the net sink is now relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO2Expand
Economic and ecological views on climate change mitigation with bioenergy and negative emissions
Climate stabilization scenarios emphasize the importance of land‐based mitigation to achieve ambitious mitigation goals. The stabilization scenarios informing the recent IPCC's Fifth AssessmentExpand
Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies
The land-use sector can contribute to climate change mitigation not only by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but also by increasing carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thereby creatingExpand
Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed
The terrestrial biosphere absorbs about 20% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions. The overall magnitude of this sink is constrained by the difference between emissions, the rate of increase in atmosphericExpand
Trade‐offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential
The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tC DR. Expand
Uncertainties in the land use flux resulting from land use change reconstructions and gross land transitions
Abstract. Land-use and land-cover (LUC) changes are a key uncertainty when attributing changes in measured atmospheric CO2 concentration to its sinks and sources and must also be much betterExpand
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation
Abstract Projected increases in population, income and consumption rates are expected to lead to rising pressure on the land system. Ambitions to limit global warming to 2 °C or even 1.5 °C couldExpand
Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers, impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options
In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global landExpand
Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching
Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being and provide important ecosystem services such as crop yields, retention of nitrogen and carbon storage. On large (regional to global)-scale levels,Expand