Killing Kaplanism: Flawed methodologies, the standard of proof and modernity

  title={Killing Kaplanism: Flawed methodologies, the standard of proof and modernity},
  author={William Cullerne Bown},
  journal={The International Journal of Evidence \& Proof},
  pages={229 - 254}
Attempts to establish a quantitative framework for policy-making in the criminal justice system in recent decades have coalesced around the problem of the standard of proof and Kaplan’s influential 1968 paper. The central thread of work continues to use an equation he put forward while abandoning some of his foundational assumptions, an approach I call ‘Kaplanism’. Despite a growing awareness of deficiencies, elements of this school of thought, such as the parsing of concerns into the two… 



The criminal justice system as a problem in binary classification

  • W. Bown
  • Philosophy
    The International Journal of Evidence & Proof
  • 2018
Attempts to establish a quantitative framework for thinking about the criminal justice system have been made at least since Kaplan’s influential 1968 article. Here I avoid the probabilistic

Foundations of Evidence Law

This book examines systematically the underlying theory of evidence in Anglo-American legal systems and identifies the defining characteristics of adjudicative fact-finding. Stein develops a detailed

Trial by mathematics: precision and ritual in the legal process

  • L. Tribe
  • Law
    Legal Theory and the Natural Sciences Volume VI
  • 2014
Professor Tribe considers the accuracy, appropriateness, and possible dangers of utilizing mathematical methods in the legal process, first in the actual conduct of civil and criminal trials, and

The Truth Will Out? Incoherence and Scepticism in Foundations of Evidence Law

Stein's book raises many important issues about the function and structure of evidence law, and is often insightful. However, it contains structural flaws and inconsistent analyses. Stein defines the

The Difference between Blackstone-Like Error Ratios and Probabilistic Standards of Proof

  • M. DeKay
  • Law
    Law & Social Inquiry
  • 1996
Statements regarding the ratio of erroneous acquittals to erroneous convictions are often thought to have clear implications for standards of proof. For example, Blackstone's comment that “it is

N Guilty Men

“[B]etter that ten guilty persons escape, than that one innocent suffer,” said English jurist William Blackstone. The ratio 10:1 has become known as the “Blackstone ratio.” Lawyers “are

Determining the Base Rate for Guilt

A Bayesian assessment of the probability that the defendant in a criminal trial is guilty depends on the presumed base rate for guilt and the estimated likelihoods of the evidence. This article

The nature of juridical proof

The different contexts of forensic science and juridical decision making are explored to identify the nature of juridical proof, the role of formalized probability theory in it, and how factual