Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

@article{Tversky1974JudgmentUU,
  title={Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.},
  author={Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman},
  journal={Science},
  year={1974},
  volume={185 4157},
  pages={
          1124-31
        }
}
This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in… 
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References

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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that
Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness
Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
On the psychology of prediction
In this paper, we explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical prediction. Two classes of
The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis
Abstract In the Bayesian framework, quantified judgments about uncertainty are an indispensable input to methods of statistical inference and decision. Ultimately, all components of the formal
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The experiment was designed to test the hypothesis, derived from earlier investigations, that people tend to overestimate compound probabilities, in the rough sense that they think they have a better
BELIEF IN THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS
“Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory ( z = 2.23, p If you feel that the probability is somewhere around .85, you may
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