Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

@article{Tversky1974JudgmentUU,
  title={Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases},
  author={A. Tversky and D. Kahneman},
  journal={Science},
  year={1974},
  volume={185},
  pages={1124 - 1131}
}
This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in… Expand
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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
TLDR
Three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty are described: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development. Expand
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This work suggests a theoretical reorientation away from assuming people's representations towards a focus on explaining how people themselves specify what is important to represent, and casts decision makers as intuitive scientists able to flexibly construct, modify, and replace the representations of the decision problems they face. Expand
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A unified theoretical perspective is proposed which applies the mathematical formalism of quantum theory in Hilbert space to cognitive domains and explains how the quantum-theoretic framework works in a variety of judgement and decision situations where systematic and significant deviations from classicality occur. Expand
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It is suggested that people use and integrate all of the information provided to them to make judgements, but heavily prioritize information that is causal in nature because people are sensitive to the underlying causal structures in their environment and adapt their decision making as such. Expand
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Abstract A major module of rational advice taking consists in the metacognitive ability to distinguish between credible advice and arbitrary anchors. Accordingly, we investigated the extent to which… Expand
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Abstract Based on the Dual-Process Diffusion Model, we tested three hypotheses about response times of errors and correct responses in probability judgments. We predicted that correct responses were… Expand
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References

The Foundations of Statistics (Wiley
  • New York,
  • 1954