Jet latitude regimes and the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

@article{Strommen2020JetLR,
  title={Jet latitude regimes and the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation},
  author={Kristian Strommen},
  journal={Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  year={2020},
  volume={146},
  pages={2368 - 2391}
}
  • K. Strommen
  • Published 2 October 2019
  • Environmental Science
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
In recent years, numerical weather prediction models have begun to show notable levels of skill at predicting the average winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when initialised one month ahead. At the same time, these model predictions exhibit unusually low signal‐to‐noise ratios, in what has been dubbed a ‘signal‐to‐noise paradox’. We analyse both the skill and signal‐to‐noise ratio of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model… 
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    Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
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