Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?

  title={Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?},
  author={A. G. Fabbri and Chang-Jo Chung and Antonio Cendrero and Juan Remondo},
  journal={Natural Hazards},
This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by… 
Spatial Support in Landslide Hazard Predictions Based on Map Overlays
Abstract This contribution considers the predictions of mass movements that have yet to take place and the support provided by spatial databases for the prediction. Conventional hazard maps tend to
Space-time landslide predictive modelling
<p>Landslides are nearly ubiquitous phenomena and pose severe threats to people, properties, and the environment. Investigators have for long attempted to estimate landslide hazard to determine
Improving the reliability of landslide susceptibility mapping through spatial uncertainty analysis: a case study of Al Hoceima, Northern Morocco
Abstract This paper aims at providing an answer as to whether generalization obtained with data-driven modelling can be used to gauge the plausibility of the physically based (PB) model’s prediction.
Assessing the quality of landslide susceptibility maps – case study Lower Austria
This study of landslides in Lower Austria focuses on the model form uncertainty to assess the quality of a flexible statistical modelling technique, the generalized additive model (GAM), and the implications of spatially varying prediction uncertainties regarding the susceptibility map classes by taking into account the confidence intervals of model predictions.
Engineering geology maps: landslides and geographical information systems
IAEG Commission No. 1—Engineering Geological Maps—is developing a guide to hazard maps. Scientists from 17 countries have participated. This paper is one of a series that presents the results of that
Spatial Uncertainty of Target Patterns Generated by Different Prediction Models of Landslide Susceptibility
This contribution exposes the relative uncertainties associated with prediction patterns of landslide susceptibility. The patterns are based on relationships between direct and indirect spatial
Regional landslide susceptibility model using the Monte Carlo approach– the case of Slovenia
Based on the analyses of landslide spatial occurrence, a regional landslide susceptibility model for the area of Slovenia with medium spatial resolution was calculated. Of 3241 landslides with known
Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Maps: From Blind-Testing to Uncertainty of Class Membership: A Review of Past and Present Developments
  • A. Fabbri, C. Chung
  • Environmental Science
    Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research
  • 2018
This contribution reviews the spatial characterization originally stimulated by mineral exploration and later by environmental concern. Research network programmes of the European Commission
Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment
A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described.


Validation of Spatial Prediction Models for Landslide Hazard Mapping
This contribution discusses the problemof providing measures of significance ofprediction results when the predictionswere generated from spatial databases forlandslide hazard mapping. The
Probabilistic prediction models for landslide hazard mapping
A joint conditional probability model is proposed to represent a measure of a future landslide hazard, and five estimation procedures for the model are presented. The distribution of past landslides