Is El Nino changing?

  title={Is El Nino changing?},
  author={Fedorov and Philander},
  volume={288 5473},
Recent advances in observational and theoretical studies of El Nino have shed light on controversies concerning the possible effect of global warming on this phenomenon over the past few decades and in the future. El Nino is now understood to be one phase of a natural mode of oscillation-La Nina is the complementary phase-that results from unstable interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. Random disturbances maintain this neutrally stable mode, whose properties depend… 
Is El Niño really changing?
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific climate variability, with global impacts. Understanding how the statistics of ENSO events may be changing in response to
Recent progress on two types of El Niño: Observations, dynamics, and future changes
  • S. Yeh, J. Kug, S. An
  • Environmental Science
    Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
  • 2014
The climate community has made significant progress in observing, understanding and predicting El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the last 30 years. In spite of that, unresolved questions
Determining how El Nino and its impacts may change over the next 10 to 100 years remains a difficult scientific challenge. Ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are routinely
How Does El Niño–Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming—A First Look at CMIP6
The latest generation of coupled models, the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), is used to study the changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate. For
El Niño and our future climate: where do we stand?
El Niño and La Niña comprise the dominant mode of tropical climate variability: the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. ENSO variations influence climate, ecosystems, and societies
Eocene El Niño: Evidence for Robust Tropical Dynamics in the "Hothouse"
Comparing Eocene coupled climate model simulations with annually resolved variability records preserved in lake sediments shows Pacific deep-ocean and high-latitude surface warming of ∼10°C but little change in the tropical thermocline structure, atmosphere-Ocean dynamics, and ENSO, in agreement with proxies.
The Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most powerful climate phenomena that produce p rofound global impacts. Extensive research since the 1970s has resulted in a theoretical framework
ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science
Research to address many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved will lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines and provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.
Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on European climate
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is arguably the most important global climate pattern. While the effects in the Pacific–North American sector and the tropical regions are relatively well
Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño
Analysis of how changing El Niño properties, due to 20th century climate change, can shed light on changes to the intensity of El Niño in the future shows that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced.


Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest natural interannual climate fluctuation. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has large effects on the ecology of the
Genesis and evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino
  • McPhaden
  • Environmental Science
  • 1999
The 1997-98 El Nino was, by some measures, the strongest on record, with major climatic impacts felt around the world. A newly completed tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean observing system documented
A Model El Niñ–Southern Oscillation
Abstract A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed and used to study the ENSO (El Niñ/Southern Oscillation) phenomenon. With no anomalous external forcing, the coupled model reproduces certain
El Niño and climate change
A comprehensive statistical analysis of how an index of the Southern Oscillation changed from 1882 to 1995 was given by Trenberth and Hoar [1996], with a focus on the unusual nature of the 1990–1995
Anomalous ENSO Occurrences: An Alternate View*
There has been an apparent increase in the frequency and duration of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in the last two decades relative to the prior period of record. Furthermore, 1990-95 was the
On the structure and evolution of ENSO‐related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA
Improved observations in the tropical Pacific during the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program have served to corroborate preexisting notions concerning the seasonally dependent
Abrupt shift in subsurface temperatures in the tropical pacific associated with changes in El Nino
Radiocarbon (14C) content of surface waters inferred from a coral record from the Galapagos Islands increased abruptly during the upwelling season (July through September) after the El Nino event of 1976, implying that the vertical thermal structure of the eastern tropical Pacific changed in 1976.
Ocean modeling for ENSO
Tropical ocean modeling has played a major part in the development of our knowledge of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) decade. Although the
The Interpretation of Short Climate Records, with Comments on the North Atlantic and Southern Oscillations
Abstract This pedagogical note reminds the reader that the interpretation of climate records is dependent upon understanding the behavior of stochastic processes. In particular, before concluding
Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation
Abstract Using the ideas of generalized linear stability theory, the authors examine the potential role that tropical variability on synoptic–intraseasonal timescales can play in controlling