Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?

  title={Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?},
  author={Y. Kagan},
  journal={pure and applied geophysics},
  • Y. Kagan
  • Published 1999
  • pure and applied geophysics
Abstract—Our purpose is to analyze the causes of recent failures in earthquake forecasting, as well as the difficulties in earthquake investigation. We then propose that more rigorous methods are necessary in earthquake seismology research. First, we discuss the failures of direct earthquake forecasts and the poor quantitative predictive power of theoretical and computer simulation methods in explaining earthquakes. These failures are due to the immense complexity of earthquake rupture… Expand
Model selection and uncertainty in earthquake hazard analysis
Statistical Physics Approaches to Seismicity
Foreshocks explained by cascades of triggered seismicity
Fractal Nature of Earthquake Occurrence in Northwest Himalayan Region