Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models

@article{Beger2014IrregularLC,
  title={Irregular Leadership Changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models},
  author={Andreas Beger and Cassy L. Dorff and Michael D. Ward},
  journal={International Journal of Forecasting},
  year={2014},
  volume={32},
  pages={98-111}
}
  • Andreas Beger, Cassy L. Dorff, Michael D. Ward
  • Published 2014
  • Economics, Mathematics
  • International Journal of Forecasting
  • We forecast Irregular Leadership Changes (ILCs)–unexpected leadership changes in contravention of a state’s established laws and conventions–for six months in mid-2014 using predictions from an ensemble of seven split-population duration regression models. The original forecasts were made in May 2014. Our approach allows us to aggregate models for different mechanisms leading to ILCs in one ensemble forecast, is sensitive to the overwhelming number of non-events (zeros) in the data, and allows… CONTINUE READING

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