Invisible Digital Front: Can Cyber Attacks Shape Battlefield Events?

@article{Kostyuk2019InvisibleDF,
  title={Invisible Digital Front: Can Cyber Attacks Shape Battlefield Events?},
  author={Nadiya Kostyuk and Yuri M. Zhukov},
  journal={Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  year={2019},
  volume={63},
  pages={317 - 347}
}
Recent years have seen growing concern over the use of cyber attacks in wartime, but little evidence that these new tools of coercion can change battlefield events. We present the first quantitative analysis of the relationship between cyber activities and physical violence during war. Using new event data from the armed conflict in Ukraine—and additional data from Syria’s civil war—we analyze the dynamics of cyber attacks and find that such activities have had little or no impact on fighting… 

Figures and Tables from this paper

CYBER WARFARE AND IMPLICATIONS Cyber warfare and Implications
TLDR
Transnational cyber-security is an increasingly persistent issue for leading national world powers and existing professionals are not wellresourced to deal with the continuous change in the cybersecurity field, due to an absence of detailed knowledge in the field.
Correlations Between Cyberspace Attacks and Kinetic Attacks
  • Martin C. Libicki
  • Computer Science
    2020 12th International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CyCon)
  • 2020
TLDR
The broad conclusion is that conflict in cyberspace rarely echoes into the world of kinetic conflict (although kinetic conflict increasingly has Cyberspace dimensions), which raises the question of whether and why a threshold is emerging between non-lethal and lethal attacks.
Cyber-Attacks and Freedom of Expression: Coercion, Intimidation and Virtual Occupation
  • J. Burton
  • Computer Science
    Baltic Journal of European Studies
  • 2019
TLDR
It is argued that the wider effects of cyber operations on political, civil and human rights have been underexplored in the cyber security literature; that cyber-attacks have adversely affected freedom of expression in the conflict in Ukraine and in other political disputes; and that the coercion concept is ill-suited to accounting for the socio-psychological impact of modern cyber operations.
Breaking the Myth of Cyber Doom: Securitization and Normalization of Novel Threats
TLDR
Evidence is presented suggesting that the unique characteristics of a development (i.e., web-technology proliferation) matter in opinion formation, as sensitivity to digital threats to the polity is grounded on personal threat sensitivity.
A fragile public preference for cyber strikes: Evidence from survey experiments in the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel
ABSTRACT To what extent does the public support the use of cyber weapons? We propose that public exposure to the destructive potential of cyber-attacks will dispel the clear cross-national preference
How We Stopped Worrying about Cyber Doom and Started Collecting Data
TLDR
This work first posit what can be known about cyber security interactions with data as well as what cannot, and examines the known works in the field that utilize data and evidence to examine cyber security processes to offer a different path forward.
Cyber conflict vs. Cyber Command: hidden dangers in the American military solution to a large-scale intelligence problem
TLDR
The stakes of this debate are not simply conceptual but institutional, and the contradiction between the nature of the problem and the bureaucratic solution has the potential to complicate both intelligence and cybersecurity.
The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity
ABSTRACT Cyberspace is a new domain of operation, with its own characteristics. Cyber weapons differ qualitatively from kinetic ones: They generate effects by non-kinetic means through information,
Two explanations for the paucity of cyber-military, cross-domain operations
This article investigates why states have launched so few cross-domain operations—in this case, operations between cyber and military domains—when they have launched so many cyberattacks. I explore
Cyber security meets security politics: Complex technology, fragmented politics, and networked science
TLDR
The intellectual history is provided to situate this literature in its broader evolutionary context and conclude that it is a vibrant and diverse biotope that is benefitting from its interdisciplinarity, its relevance for policy, and its cognizance of the interplay between technological possibilities and political choices of state actors.
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 64 REFERENCES
Cyberwar: Taking Stock of Security and Warfare in the Digital Age
This article examines the implications of cyberwar for national security and traditional warfare. While not making traditional war obsolete, cyber-weapons can nonetheless be force-amplifiers for
The Virtual Battlefield: Perspectives on Cyber Warfare
TLDR
This book discusses the challenges and solutions to the challenges of cyber security in the context of Europe, as well as some of the theories and practices that have been proposed to address these challenges.
Cyber war will not take place
For almost two decades, experts and defense establishments the world over have been predicting that cyber war is coming. But is it? This article argues in three steps that cyber war has never
The dynamics of cyber conflict between rival antagonists, 2001–11
TLDR
The goal of this research article is to exhaustively collect information on cyber interactions between rival states in the last decade so that it can delineate the patterns of cyber conflict as reflected by evidence at the international level.
Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It
Richard A. Clarke warned America once before about the havoc terrorism would wreak on our national security -- and he was right. Now he warns us of another threat, silent but equally dangerous. Cyber
Cyclones in cyberspace: Information shaping and denial in the 2008 Russia–Georgia war
While the rhetoric of cyber war is often exaggerated, there have been recent cases of international conflict in which cyberspace has played a prominent role. In this article, we analyze the impact of
FROM PITCHFORKS TO LAPTOPS: VOLUNTEERS IN CYBER CONFLICTS
TLDR
Based on the overview of the simple options that are available for a novice cyber attacker I will draw some conclusions on the actual threat posed by a (ad‑hoc cyber militia of amateurs).
The Meaning of the Cyber Revolution: Perils to Theory and Statecraft
Abstract While decisionmakers warn about the cyber threat constantly, there is little systematic analysis of the issue from an international security studies perspective. Some scholars presume that
The Signifi cance of Attribution to Cyberspace Coercion : A Political Perspective
The question of cyber deterrence, or “What and how do you deter malicious actions in cyberspace?” has been hotly debated over the last few years. Stories of massive intellectual property theft and
Timing of cyber conflict
TLDR
This paper introduces a simple mathematical model applied to four case studies to promote the understanding of the new domain of cyber conflict to mitigate the harm it can do, and harness the capabilities it can provide.
...
...