Investigating the Role of Time in Affective Forecasting: Temporal Influences on Forecasting Accuracy

@article{Finkenauer2007InvestigatingTR,
  title={Investigating the Role of Time in Affective Forecasting: Temporal Influences on Forecasting Accuracy},
  author={Catrin Finkenauer and Marcello Gallucci and Wilco W. van Dijk and Monique M. H. Pollmann},
  journal={Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin},
  year={2007},
  volume={33},
  pages={1152 - 1166}
}
Using extensive diary data from people taking their driver's license exam, the authors investigated the role of time in affective forecasting accuracy. Replicating existing findings, participants grossly overestimated the intensity and duration of their negative affect after failure and only slightly overestimated the intensity and duration of their positive affect after success. Extending existing findings, participants accurately predicted a decrease of their affective reactions over time but… 
Negative Valence Effect in Affective Forecasting: The Unique Impact of the Valence Among Dispositional and Contextual Factors for Certain Life Events
Decades of research on affective forecasting have shown a persistent intensity bias—a strong tendency by which people overestimate their future hedonic response for positive events and underestimate
Affective Forecasts for the Experience Itself: An Investigation of the Impact Bias during an Affective Experience
Research documents that forecasts about the emotional consequences of decisions are prone to error. However, there is relatively little known about affective forecasts regarding engaging in
Affective forecasting: The effects of immune neglect and surrogation
Studies of affective forecasting examine people’s ability to predict (forecast) their emotional (affective) responses to future events. Affective forecasts underlie nearly all decisions people make
Influencing Affective Forecasts for Material Products
When people predict their future feelings, they usually overestimate the impact of single events. The most important explanation for this phenomenon is focalism; i.e., the tendency to think about
Accuracy and artifact: reexamining the intensity bias in affective forecasting.
TLDR
The results showed that participants accurately predicted the intensity of their feelings about events and revealed that people have more sophisticated self-knowledge than is commonly portrayed in the affective forecasting literature.
Affective forecasting and the Big Five.
Affective forecasting in problem gamblers
Affective forecasting refers to the process of predicting emotional reactions to future events. It plays an important role in decision making, but is also prone to errors, such as the ‘impact bias’:
Forecasting the Duration of Emotions: A Motivational Account and Self-Other Differences
TLDR
This research investigates the forecasts that people make about the duration of positive versus negative emotions, and tests whether these forecasts differ for self versus for others, and potential implications of these motivated forecasts and self–other differences are discussed.
Emotional time travel: Emotion regulation and the overestimation of future anger and sadness
In the present study we examined the role of four specific forms of reappraisal in people's overestimation of their future experiences of anger and sadness. Results show that forecasters predicted to
Realistic affective forecasting: The role of personality
TLDR
Three purported personality processes implicated in affective forecasting are suggested, highlighting the importance of individual-differences research in this domain, and calling for more research on realistic affective forecasts.
...
...

References

SHOWING 1-10 OF 53 REFERENCES
Intensity Bias in Affective Forecasting: The Role of Temporal Focus
In five studies, university students predicted their affective reactions to a wide variety of positive and negative future events. In Studies 1 to 3, participants also reported the affective
Affective Forecasting
People base many decisions on affective forecasts, predictions about their emotional reactions to future events. They often display an impact bias, overestimating the intensity and duration of their
Lay theories in affective forecasting: The progression of affect
Focalism: a source of durability bias in affective forecasting.
TLDR
Evidence for a distraction interpretation is found, that people who think about future events moderate their forecasts because they believe that these events will reduce thinking about the focal event.
Immune neglect: a source of durability bias in affective forecasting.
TLDR
The present experiments suggest that people neglect the psychological immune system when making affective forecasts.
The Future Is Now: Temporal Correction in Affective Forecasting☆
Decisions are often based on predictions of the hedonic consequences of future events. We suggest that people make such predictions by imagining the event without temporal context (atemporal
Mood regulation and emotional intelligence: individual differences.
  • C. Gohm
  • Psychology
    Journal of personality and social psychology
  • 2003
TLDR
An examination of differences in how individuals experience their emotions led to the identification of 4 distinct types (overwhelmed, hot, cerebral, and cool), which differed in how they initially reacted to the emotional situation, how they regulated their mood, and how they made judgments.
On being cool and collected: mood regulation in anticipation of social interaction.
TLDR
This study examined the influence of anticipated social interaction on the regulation of moods by inducing happy and sad moods through exposure to music and showed it was confined primarily to anticipation of interaction with partners who are expected to be in neutral or good moods themselves.
Location, Location, Location: The Misprediction of Satisfaction in Housing Lotteries
TLDR
The authors replicated the impact bias in a real-life context in which undergraduates were randomly assigned to dormitories and found that this discrepancy emerged in part because participants exhibited an isolation effect, focusing too much on factors that distinguished between houses and not enough on Factors that varied only slightly, such as social features.
Toward a Science of Mood Regulation
Mood is distinguished from emotion, and mood regulation is distinguished from coping. A model of mood regulation is presented which draws on principles of control theory, which distinguishes between
...
...