Inversions in Us Presidential Elections: 1836-2016

@article{Geruso2019InversionsIU,
  title={Inversions in Us Presidential Elections: 1836-2016},
  author={M. Geruso and Dean Spears and Ishaana Talesara},
  journal={Political Institutions: Elections eJournal},
  year={2019}
}
Inversions—in which the popular vote winner loses the election—have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one point (one-eighth of presidential elections), about 40% will be inversions in expectation. We show this conditional probability is remarkably stable across historical periods—despite differences in which groups voted, which… Expand
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