# Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners”

@article{Shimojo1989IntuitiveRA, title={Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners”}, author={Shinsuke Shimojo and Shin'ichi Ichikawa}, journal={Cognition}, year={1989}, volume={32}, pages={1-24} }

## 114 Citations

ERRONEOUS BELIEFS IN ESTIMATING POSTERIOR PROBABILITY

- Philosophy
- 1990

The characteristics of human intuitive reasoning in estimating posterior probability can often be clarified through counterintuitive problems. A modified version of the “problem of three prisoners”…

Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning

- Philosophy
- 1999

A theory of naive probability is outlined, which explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem, and predicts several phenomena of reasoning about absolute probabilities, including typical biases.

Heuristics and Biases: Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning

- Computer Science
- 2002

The student of judgment uses the probability calculus as a standard of comparison much as a student of perception might compare the perceived size of objects to their physical sizes to determine the “correct” probability of events.

Naive probability: a mental model theory of extensional reasoning.

- PhilosophyPsychological review
- 1999

The theory predicts several phenomena of reasoning about absolute probabilities, including typical biases, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem.

The psychology of dynamic probability judgment: order effect, normative theories, and experimental methodology

- Psychology
- 2007

The Bayesian model is used in psychology as the reference for the study of dynamic probability judgment. The main limit induced by this model is that it confines the study of revision of degrees of…

Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability: frequency or nested sets?

- PsychologyExperimental psychology
- 2003

Results from two experiments showed that frequency alone had modest effects, while the nested-sets instruction achieved a superior facilitation of normative reasoning, and implications for understanding the nature of intuitive probability judgments are discussed.

Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?

- PsychologyBehavioral and Brain Sciences
- 2000

In a series of experiments involving most of the classic tasks in the heuristics and biases literature, the implications of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap are examined.

Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

- Psychology
- 2002

The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American…

The exchange paradox: Probabilistic and cognitive analysis of a psychological conundrum

- Economics
- 2006

The term “exchange paradox” refers to a situation in which it appears to be advantageous for each of two holders of an envelope containing some amount of money to always exchange his or her envelope…

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