# Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners”

@article{Shimojo1989IntuitiveRA, title={Intuitive reasoning about probability: Theoretical and experimental analyses of the “problem of three prisoners”}, author={Shinsuke Shimojo and Shin'ichi Ichikawa}, journal={Cognition}, year={1989}, volume={32}, pages={1-24} }

## 114 Citations

ERRONEOUS BELIEFS IN ESTIMATING POSTERIOR PROBABILITY

- Philosophy
- 1990

The characteristics of human intuitive reasoning in estimating posterior probability can often be clarified through counterintuitive problems. A modified version of the “problem of three prisoners”…

Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning

- Philosophy
- 1999

A theory of naive probability is outlined, which explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem, and predicts several phenomena of reasoning about absolute probabilities, including typical biases.

Heuristics and Biases: Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning

- Computer Science
- 2002

The student of judgment uses the probability calculus as a standard of comparison much as a student of perception might compare the perceived size of objects to their physical sizes to determine the “correct” probability of events.

Overcoming illusory inferences in a probabilistic counterintuitive problem: The role of explicit representations

- PsychologyMemory & cognition
- 2003

Correct reasoning seems to depend more on the ability to consider different possibilities than on extensive practice with the game, when the dilemma was presented in the form of an adversary game.

Naive probability: a mental model theory of extensional reasoning.

- PhilosophyPsychological review
- 1999

The theory predicts several phenomena of reasoning about absolute probabilities, including typical biases, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem.

Reasoning and choice in the Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD): implications for improving Bayesian reasoning

- BiologyFront. Psychol.
- 2015

It is concluded that repeated practice and/or high incentives can be effective for overcoming choice biases, but promoting an adequate partitioning of possibilities seems to be necessary for overcoming cognitive illusions and improving Bayesian reasoning.

The psychology of dynamic probability judgment: order effect, normative theories, and experimental methodology

- Psychology
- 2007

The Bayesian model is used in psychology as the reference for the study of dynamic probability judgment. The main limit induced by this model is that it confines the study of revision of degrees of…

Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability: frequency or nested sets?

- PsychologyExperimental psychology
- 2003

Results from two experiments showed that frequency alone had modest effects, while the nested-sets instruction achieved a superior facilitation of normative reasoning, and implications for understanding the nature of intuitive probability judgments are discussed.

Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.

- Economics
- 1994

This article presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the…

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