Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures

@inproceedings{Kahneman1982IntuitivePB,
  title={Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures},
  author={Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky},
  year={1982}
}
Introduction Any significant activity of forecasting involves a large component of judgment, intuition, and educated guesswork. Indeed, the opinions of experts are the source of many technological, political, and social forecasts. Opinions and intuitions play an important part even where the forecasts are obtained by a mathematical model or a simulation. Intuitive judgments enter in the choice of the variables that are considered in such models, the impact factors that are assigned to them, and… 

Heuristics and Biases: Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning

The student of judgment uses the probability calculus as a standard of comparison much as a student of perception might compare the perceived size of objects to their physical sizes to determine the “correct” probability of events.

Updating Expected Returns Based on Consensus Forecasts

Investor behavior can explain to some extent the stock market anomalies from a psychological viewpoint. Recent literature suggests a lot of models without testing predictability implied by the models

Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments

The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training module (“CHAMPS

Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American

Heuristics and Biases: When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism

One of the most robust findings in the psychology of prediction is that people's predictions tend to be optimistically biased. By a number of metrics and across a variety of domains, people have been

Calibration Accuracy of a Judgmental Process that Predicts the Commercial Success of New Product Ideas

The focus of the evaluation process on case-specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization.

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

It is concluded that expert judgment should not be used for predicting decisions that people will make in conflicts because decision makers ask experts for their opinions and are likely to overlook other, more useful, approaches.

Like goes with like: The role of representativeness in erroneous and pseudo-scientific beliefs.

As its name implies, the heuristics and biases approach to human judgment has both positive and negative agendas (Griffin, Gonzalez, & Varey, 2001). The positive agenda is to identify the mental
...