• DOI:10.1007/BF02514091
• Corpus ID: 7798127

Intervening in pest outbreaks: Simulation studies with the western tent caterpillar

@article{Thompson2006InterveningIP,
  title={Intervening in pest outbreaks: Simulation studies with the western tent caterpillar},
  author={W. A. Thompson and Ilan Vertinsky and WILLIAM G. Wellington},
  journal={Researches on Population Ecology},
  year={2006},
  volume={23},
  pages={27-38}
}

• W. Thompson, I. Vertinsky, W. Wellington
• Published 1 June 1981
• Biology
• Researches on Population Ecology

A stochastic model mimicking the behavior of the western tent-caterpillar populations on Vancouver Island was used to study methods of suppressing an outbreak. Since many forest defoliators often receive only one treatment during their outbreak period, we applied a hypothetical single treatment at different times during a simulated outbreak, to assess the influence of timing. Intervening early in the cycle was the best method of suppressing numbers below a tolerable threshold during a particular outbreak. Treatment during the most rapid period of increase was less effective, and treatments at or beyond the peak provided little relief during that particular outbreak. For longer-term protection, however, treating the refugia of a declining population was far superior to less selective intervention. Concentrating the treatment within these refuges decimated the breeding stock surviving there at a time when the population could least afford such injury. Timing and focussing the intervention to obtain that maximal impact thus prolonged the period of suppression during the next outbreak.