Interpretable Modeling for Short- and Medium-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

  title={Interpretable Modeling for Short- and Medium-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting},
  author={Kei Hirose},
  booktitle={Frontiers in Energy Research},
  • Kei Hirose
  • Published in Frontiers in Energy Research 1 June 2020
  • Mathematics, Computer Science
We consider the problem of short- and medium-term electricity demand forecasting by using past demand and daily weather forecast information. Conventionally, many researchers have directly applied regression analysis. However, interpreting the effect of weather on the demand is difficult with the existing methods. In this study, we build a statistical model that resolves this interpretation issue. A varying coefficient model with basis expansion is used to capture the nonlinear structure of the… 
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