Interannual Temperature Predictions using the CMIP 3 multi-model ensemble mean 1

  title={Interannual Temperature Predictions using the CMIP 3 multi-model ensemble mean 1},
  author={Thomas Laepple and Stephen Jewson and Katie Coughlin}
Running title: Interannual predictions using the IPCC ensemble mean 6 2 We present a simple method to make multi-year surface temperature forecasts using the 7 climate change simulations of the IPCC AR4 project. By calibrating the multi-model 8 ensemble mean with current observations, we are able to make skillful interannual 9 forecasts of mean temperatures. The method is validated using extensive hindcast 10 experiments and is shown to perform favorably compared to a recently presented 11… CONTINUE READING

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