Interacting Regime Shifts in Ecosystems : Implication for Early Warnings 1

  title={Interacting Regime Shifts in Ecosystems : Implication for Early Warnings 1},
  author={William A. Brock and Stephen R. Carpenter},
Big ecological changes often involve regime shifts in which a critical threshold is 22 crossed. Thresholds are often difficult to measure and transgressions of thresholds come as 23 surprises. If a critical threshold is approached gradually, however, there are early warnings of the 24 impending regime shift. Autocorrelation approaches 1 from below, variance and skewness 25 increase, and variance spectra shift to lower frequencies. Here we focus on variance, an indicator 26 easily computed from… CONTINUE READING
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