Intelligent Design and Probability Reasoning

@inproceedings{Sober2002IntelligentDA,
  title={Intelligent Design and Probability Reasoning},
  author={Elliott Sober},
  year={2002}
}
This paper defends two theses about probabilistic reasoning. First, although modus ponens has a probabilistic analog, modus tollens does not – the fact that a hypothesis says that an observation is very improbable does not entail that the hypothesis is improbable. Second, the evidence relation is essentially comparative; with respect to hypotheses that confer probabilities on observation statements but do not entail them, an observation O may favor one hypothesis H1 over another hypothesis H2… CONTINUE READING