Insufficient Forcing Uncertainty Underestimates the Risk of High Climate Sensitivity

  title={Insufficient Forcing Uncertainty Underestimates the Risk of High Climate Sensitivity},
  author={Katsumasa Tanaka and Thomas Raddatz and Brian C. O’Neill and Christian H. Reick},
[1] Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a fundamental problem for projections of the future climate. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is defined as the asymptotic response of global-mean surface air temperature to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration from the preindustrial level ( 280 ppm). In spite of various efforts to estimate its value, climate sensitivity is still not well constrained. Here we show that the probability of high climate sensitivity is higher than previously… CONTINUE READING

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