Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump

@inproceedings{Baumeister2017InsideTC,
  title={Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump},
  author={Christiane Baumeister and Lutz Kilian and Thomas K. Lee},
  year={2017}
}
Although there is much interest in the future retail price of gasoline among consumers, industry analysts, and policymakers, it is widely believed that changes in the price of gasoline are essentially unforecastable given publicly available information. We explore a range of new forecasting approaches for the retail price of gasoline and compare their accuracy with the no-change forecast. Our key finding is that substantial reductions in the mean-squared prediction error (MSPE) of gasoline… CONTINUE READING

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