Influenza drift and epidemic size: the race between generating and escaping immunity.

@article{Boni2004InfluenzaDA,
  title={Influenza drift and epidemic size: the race between generating and escaping immunity.},
  author={Maciej F. Boni and Julia R. Gog and Viggo Andreasen and Freddy Bugge Christiansen},
  journal={Theoretical population biology},
  year={2004},
  volume={65 2},
  pages={179-91}
}
Influenza in humans is characterised by strongly annual dynamics and antigenic evolution leading to partial escape from prior host immunity. The variability of new epidemic strains depends on the amount of virus currently circulating. In this paper, the amount of antigenic variation produced each year is dependent on the epidemic size. Our model reduces to a one-dimensional map and a full mathematical analysis is presented. This simple system suggests some basic principles which may be more… CONTINUE READING

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