• Corpus ID: 216144449

Inferring epidemic parameters for COVID-19 from fatality counts in Mumbai

  title={Inferring epidemic parameters for COVID-19 from fatality counts in Mumbai},
  author={Sourendu Gupta},
  journal={arXiv: Populations and Evolution},
  • Sourendu Gupta
  • Published 23 April 2020
  • Medicine
  • arXiv: Populations and Evolution
Epidemic parameters are estimated through Bayesian inference using the daily fatality counts in Mumbai during the period from March 31 to April 14. A doubling time of 5.5 days (median with 95% CrI of 4.6-6.9 days) is observed. In the SEIR model this gives the basic reproduction rate R_0 of 3.4 (median with 95% CrI of 2.4-4.8). Using as input the infection fatality rate and the interval between infection and death, the number of infections in Mumbai is inferred. It is found that the ratio of the… 

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