Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes

  title={Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes},
  author={Erich M. Fischer and Sebastian Sippel and Reto Knutti},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},
Recent climate extremes have broken long-standing records by large margins. Such extremes unprecedented in the observational period often have substantial impacts due to a tendency to adapt to the highest intensities, and no higher, experienced during a lifetime. Here, we show models project not only more intense extremes but also events that break previous records by much larger margins. These record-shattering extremes, nearly impossible in the absence of warming, are likely to occur in the… 

How Unexpected Was the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave?

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave featured record‐smashing high temperatures, raising questions about whether extremes are changing faster than the mean, and challenging our ability to estimate the

The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally

In June 2021, western North America experienced a record-breaking heat wave outside the distribution of previously observed temperatures. While it is clear that the event was extreme, it is not

Large discrepancies in the representation of compound long-duration dry and hot spells over Europe in CMIP5

. Long-duration dry spells in combination with temperature extremes during summer have led to extreme impacts on society and ecosystems in the past. Such events are expected to become more frequent

Rare events in the Arctic

Twenty years ago, the Arctic was more resilient than now as sea ice was three times thicker than today. Heavier and more persistent sea ice provided a buffer against the influence of short-term

On the impossibility of extreme event thresholds in the absence of global warming

The exceptional severity of recent climate extremes has raised the question of whether some events would have been impossible in the absence of global warming. This question is critical for climate

Revealing the statistics of extreme events hidden in short weather forecast data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society, but occur with small probabilities that are inherently difficult to compute. A rare event with a

Causes of the Record-Breaking Pacific Northwest Heatwave, Late June 2021

The extreme heat event that hit the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, southern British Columbia) at the end of June 2021 was 3 °C greater than the previous Seattle record of 39 °C; larger

The Extreme Heat Wave of Summer 2021 in Athens (Greece): Cumulative Heat and Exposure to Heat Stress

The Mediterranean has been identified as a ‘climate change hot spot’, already experiencing faster warming rates than the global average, along with an increased occurrence of heat waves (HWs),

Quantifying the Occurrence of Multi-Hazards Due to Climate Change

This paper introduces a climatic multi-hazard risk assessment for Greece, as the first-ever attempt to enhance scientific knowledge for the identification and definition of hazards, a critical

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to



Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century

Changes in the intensity or frequency of extreme climate events can profoundly increase the disruption caused by climate change1–4. The more extreme these events, the greater the potential to push

Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming

Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. A widely used approach to quantify this phenomenon is standardizing temperature data relative to

Historical and future changes in maximum and minimum temperature records over Europe

Recent studies examining changes in temperature record frequency over the continental United States have reported that the number of Tmax records has been increasing over the past 50 years and

Attribution of Extreme Events in Arctic Sea Ice Extent

AbstractArctic sea ice extent (SIE) has decreased over recent decades, with record-setting minimum events in 2007 and again in 2012. A question of interest across many disciplines concerns the extent

Increase of extreme events in a warming world

A theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes in generic time series, using analytical solutions and Monte Carlo simulations finds that the sum of warm plus cold extremes increases with any climate change, whether warming or cooling.

Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017

During August 25–30, 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and caused extreme precipitation, particularly over Houston and the surrounding area on August 26–28. This resulted in extensive

A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming.

Attributable Human‐Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology

Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

Record‐breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A

Mechanisms Contributing to the Warming Hole and the Consequent U.S. East–West Differential of Heat Extremes

AbstractA linear trend calculated for observed annual mean surface air temperatures over the United States for the second-half of the twentieth century shows a slight cooling over the southeastern