Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies

  title={Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies},
  author={Professor Anthony O’Hagan and Christopher J McCabe and Ron L. Akehurst and Alan Brennan and Andrew Briggs and Karl Claxton and Elisabeth A. L. Fenwick and Dennis G. Fryback and Mark John Sculpher and David J. Spiegelhalter and Andrew B. Willan},
In a recent leading article in PharmacoEconomics, Nuijten described some methods for incorporating uncertainty into health economic models and for utilising the information on uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of a therapy in resource allocation decision-making. His proposals are found to suffer from serious flaws in statistical and health economic reasoning. Nuijten’s suggestions for incorporating uncertainty: (a) wrongly interpret the p-value as the probability that the null… CONTINUE READING