Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value

  title={Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value},
  author={Gretchen B. Chapman and Eric J. Johnson},
Imagine walking down a supermarket aisle and passing an end-of-aisle display of canned tomato soup. A sign on the display says, “Limit 12 per customer.” Would such a sign influence the number of cans you would buy? Would you buy more cans than if the sign said “No limit per customer”? Our intuitions say no, but empirical evidence indicates that purchase behaviors are influenced by such a sign (Wansink, Kent, & Hoch, 1998). Consider another example: A wheel of fortune is spun and stops at the… 

Do Incidental Environmental Anchors Bias Consumers’ Price Estimations?

It is well-established that decision makers bias their estimates of unknown quantities in the direction of a salient numerical anchor. Some standard anchoring paradigms have been shown to yield

Anchors Away : Field Experiments on Anchoring of Economic Valuations

One of the pillars within an entrenched branch of research psychology is the view that preferences are constructed during the value elicitation process. Experiments on anchoring effects yield perhaps

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In the literature on judgment and decision-making, evidence abounds for the intrusive effects of peripheral information when making simple evaluations and estimations. In particular, the “anchoring

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Ariely, Loewenstein, and Prelec (2003) showed that people’s judgments of a product’s value are strongly and systematically influenced by considering numbers (or “anchors”) which should be irrelevant

The Role of 'Prominent Numbers' in Open Numerical Judgment: Strained Decision Makers Choose from a Limited Set of Accessible Numbers

Numerate adults can represent an infinite array of integers. When a judgment requires them to "pick a number," how do they select one to represent the abstract signal in mind? Drawing from research

Real estate list price anchoring and cognitive ability

Purpose This paper aims to revisit the issue of anchoring effects in real estate markets to consider the current dual-processing theory of mind. Design/methodology/approach The effects of high and

Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American

Ignorant Experts – Heightened Confidence Undermines the Beneficial Effect of a Forewarning About the Anchoring Effect

Anchoring effects are remarkably robust and difficult to correct. Forewarnings about the influence of anchor values have not led to a reduction of the anchoring effect (Wilson, Houston, Etling, &

To What Extent do Investors in a Financial Market Anchor Their Judgments? Evidence from the Hong Kong Horserace Betting Market

This paper explores the use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic by decision makers in a financial market; in particular, the degree to which horserace bettors anchor their probability judgments



Anchoring, Activation, and the Construction of Values.

  • ChapmanJohnson
  • Psychology
    Organizational behavior and human decision processes
  • 1999
This work suggests that anchors affect judgments by increasing the availability and construction of features that the anchor and target hold in common and reducing the availability of features of the target that differ from the anchor.


“Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory ( z = 2.23, p If you feel that the probability is somewhere around .85, you may

Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias

A wine-loving economist we know purchased some nice Bordeaux wines years ago at low prices. The wines have greatly appreciated in value, so that a bottle that cost only $10 when purchased would now

Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach

Psychological studies show that most people are overconfident about their own relative abilities, and unreasonably optimistic about their futures (e.g. Shelly E. Taylor and J.D. Brown, 1988; Neil D.

Representativeness, Relevance, and the Use of Feelings in Decision Making

It has been suggested that evaluations may be based on a "How-do-I-feel-about-it?" heuristic, which involves holding a representation of the target in mind and inspecting feelings that this

Availability of Information and the Aggregation of Confidence in Prior Decisions

Abstract Recent research on calibration has shown that judgments about aggregate performance are consistently lower in magnitude than confidence-judgments about single items (the “aggregation

Investing in Frankenfirms: Predicting Socially Unacceptable Risks

When the public decides that a product or production process is socially unacceptable, the share price of the firms involved may suffer. The danger is that, out of distaste, people will refrain from


It is suggested that consumers' choices between alternatives can be systematically influenced by asking them to an anticipate the regret and responsibility they would feel if they made the wrong