Incorporating structural uncertainty of hydrological models in likelihood functions via an ensemble range approach

@inproceedings{Tyralla2016IncorporatingSU,
  title={Incorporating structural uncertainty of hydrological models in likelihood functions via an ensemble range approach},
  author={Christoph Tyralla and Andreas Schumann},
  year={2016}
}
ABSTRACTModel ensembles are possibly the most powerful tool to assess uncertainties in runoff predictions stemming from inadequacies in model structure. But in many applications little knowledge is gained about the specific weaknesses of the individual models. Here we introduce the ensemble range approach (ERA). Compared to other ensemble techniques, ERA is primarily intended to facilitate hydrological reasoning about model structural uncertainty. This is attempted by separate modelling of data… CONTINUE READING