Incorporating Path Dependency into Decision-Analytic Methods: An Application to Global Climate-Change Policy

  title={Incorporating Path Dependency into Decision-Analytic Methods: An Application to Global Climate-Change Policy},
  author={Mort D. Webster},
  journal={Decis. Anal.},
  • M. Webster
  • Published 1 June 2008
  • Economics
  • Decis. Anal.
Climate policy decisions are necessarily sequential decisions over time under uncertainty, given the magnitude of uncertainty in both economic and scientific processes, the decades-to-centuries time scale of the phenomenon, and the ability to reduce uncertainty and revise decisions along the way. Thus, an appropriate choice of analytical method is decision analysis. However, applying decision analysis in the context of idealized government decision makers over a century raises the question of… 

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