Improving marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection.

@article{Xie2011ImprovingML,
  title={Improving marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection.},
  author={Wangang Xie and Paul O. Lewis and Yu Fan and Lynn Kuo and Ming-Hui Chen},
  journal={Systematic biology},
  year={2011},
  volume={60 2},
  pages={150-60}
}
The marginal likelihood is commonly used for comparing different evolutionary models in Bayesian phylogenetics and is the central quantity used in computing Bayes Factors for comparing model fit. A popular method for estimating marginal likelihoods, the harmonic mean (HM) method, can be easily computed from the output of a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis but often greatly overestimates the marginal likelihood. The thermodynamic integration (TI) method is much more accurate than the HM method… CONTINUE READING
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