Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter?

@inproceedings{Coid2015ImprovingAO,
  title={Improving Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Violence: Does Changing the Outcome Matter?},
  author={Jeremy Coid and Min Yang and Simone Ullrich and Tianqiang Zhang and Stephen Sizmur and David P Farrington and Mark Freestone and Robert D. Rogers},
  year={2015}
}
Accuracy of risk assessment instruments in predicting violence may appear poor if substantial numbers of study participants subsequently reoffend non-violently instead of violently as predicted. This study examined effects of changing the violent outcome on predictive accuracy of five instruments (OGRS, RM2000(V), VRAG, PCL-R, HCR20) for 1,353 male and 304 female released prisoners in England and Wales. Adding self-reported violence to criminal convictions resulted in a moderate increase in… CONTINUE READING