Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short‐term water contracts in a risk management framework

  title={Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short‐term water contracts in a risk management framework},
  author={A. Sankarasubramanian and Upmanu Lall and Francisco de Assis Souza Filho and Ashish Sharma},
  journal={Water Resources Research},
Probabilistic, seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts are becoming increasingly available as the ability to model climate teleconnections is improving. However, water managers and practitioners have been slow to adopt such products, citing concerns with forecast skill. Essentially, a management risk is perceived in “gambling” with operations using a probabilistic forecast, while a system failure upon following existing operating policies is “protected” by the official rules or guidebook… 

Improved regional water management utilizing climate forecasts: An interbasin transfer model with a risk management framework

Regional water supply systems undergo surplus and deficit conditions due to differences in inflow characteristics as well as due to their seasonal demand patterns. This study proposes a framework for

Optimizing multiple reliable forward contracts for reservoir allocation using multitime scale streamflow forecasts

Streamflow forecasts at multiple time scales provide a new opportunity for reservoir management to address competing objectives. Market instruments such as forward contracts with specified

An Experiment on Risk-Based Decision-Making in Water Management Using Monthly Probabilistic Forecasts

This paper presents an experiment focusing on the use of probabilistic forecasts to make decisions on reservoir outflows, a risk-based decision-making game, during which participants acted as water managers.

Dynamic reservoir management with real‐option risk hedging as a robust adaptation to nonstationary climate

The implications of climate change and the potential nonstationarity of the hydrologic record necessitate innovative approaches to water management. This study presents a novel adaptation strategy

Evaluation of model-based seasonal streamflow and water allocation forecasts for the Elqui Valley, Chile

Abstract. In many semi-arid regions, multisectoral demands often stress available water supplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which draws on a limited-capacity

Managing water utility financial risks through third‐party index insurance contracts

As developing new supply capacity has become increasingly expensive and difficult to permit (i.e., regulatory approval), utilities have become more reliant on temporary demand management programs,

Tailoring seasonal climate forecasts for hydropower operations

Abstract. Integration of seasonal precipitation forecasts into water resources operations and planning is practically nonexistent, even in regions of scarcity. This is often attributable to water

A Framework for Advancing Streamflow and Water Allocation Forecasts in the Elqui Valley, Chile

In many semi-arid regions, agriculture, energy, municipal, and environmental demands often stress available water supplies. Such is the case in the Elqui River valley of northern Chile, which draws

Climate risk management for water in semi–arid regions

BackgroundNew sources of hydroclimate information based on forecast models and observational data have the potential to greatly improve the management of water resources in semi-arid regions prone to

Optimal multi-year management of a regional water supply system under uncertainty: the Affine Adjustable Robust Counterpart (AARC) approach

In this study a regional Water Supply System (WSS), fed from natural sources which depend on uncertain recharge, and from desalination plants with fixed capacity, is to be operated over years. The



The Role of Monthly Updated Climate Forecasts in Improving Intraseasonal Water Allocation

Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning (e.g., water allocation) and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. However,

Factors affecting seasonal forecast use in Arizona water management: A case study of the 1997-98 El Niño

The 1997-98 El Nino was exceptional, not only because of its magnitude, but also because of the visibility and use of its forecasts. The 3 to 9 mo advance warning of a wet winter with potential

Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil: societal trends and forecast value

We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In

Improved Drought Management of Falls Lake Reservoir: Role of Multimodel Streamflow Forecasts in Setting up Restrictions

Droughts, resulting from natural variability in supply and from increased demand due to urbanization, have severe economic implications on local and regional water supply systems. In the context of

Improving the ability of a water market to efficiently manage drought

Some water markets maintain institutional elements that provide allocative advantages to specified water users. In the Lower Rio Grande Valley, water rights are designated as either municipal or

Impacts of climate variability on the operational forecast and management of the Upper Des Moines River Basin

Data from the regulated 14,000 km2 upper Des Moines River basin and a coupled forecast‐control model are used to study the sensitivity of flow forecasts and reservoir management to climatic

Economic Value of Long-Lead Streamflow Forecasts for Columbia River Hydropower

Recent advances in long-lead climate forecasting have made it possible to produce useful streamflow forecasts for the Columbia River basin roughly six months earlier than current forecasts that rely

Economic values for conjunctive use and water banking in southern California

The potential and limitations of conjunctive use of surface and groundwater are explored for southern California's water supply system. An economic‐engineering network flow optimization model,

Potential Effects of Long-Lead Hydrologic Predictability on Missouri River Main-Stem Reservoirs*

Abstract Understanding the links between remote conditions, such as tropical sea surface temperatures, and regional climate has the potential to improve streamflow predictions, with associated

Development of Exceedance Probability Streamflow Forecast

This paper presents a methodology for forecasting seasonal streamflow and is an extension of a previously developed categorical streamflow forecast model that used persistence (i.e., the previous