Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory

@article{Zhang2021ImprovedEA,
  title={Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory},
  author={Yongwen Zhang and Dong Zhou and Jingfang Fan and Warner Marzocchi and Yosef Ashkenazy and Shlomo Havlin},
  journal={New Journal of Physics},
  year={2021},
  volume={23}
}
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on these empirical laws. Yet, a recent study [1] showed that the ETAS model fails to reproduce the significant long-term memory characteristics found in real earthquake catalogs. Here we modify and generalize the ETAS model to include short- and long-term triggering… Expand
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