Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory

  title={Improved earthquake aftershocks forecasting model based on long-term memory},
  author={Yongwen Zhang and Dong Zhou and Jingfang Fan and Warner Marzocchi and Yosef Ashkenazy and Shlomo Havlin},
  journal={New Journal of Physics},
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws, including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on these empirical laws. Yet, a recent study [1] showed that the ETAS model fails to reproduce the significant long-term memory characteristics found in real earthquake catalogs. Here we modify and generalize the ETAS model to include short- and long-term triggering… Expand
2 Citations
An Operational Earthquake Forecasting Experiment for Israel: Preliminary Results
Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) aims to deliver timely and reliable forecasts that may help to mitigate seismic risk during earthquake sequences. In this paper, we build the first OEF systemExpand
Asymmetry in earthquake interevent time intervals
15 Here we focus on a basic statistical measure of earthquake catalogs that has not been 16 studied before, the asymmetry of interevent time series (e.g., reflecting the tendency to 17 have moreExpand


Possible origin of memory in earthquakes: Real catalogs and an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model.
Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional probability methods, it is found that memory exists not only in interoccurrence seismic records but also in released energy as well as in the series of the number of events per unit time. Expand
Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering
Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories andExpand
Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California
The model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model and combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering, and produces a time- dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. Expand
Scaling laws in earthquake memory for interevent times and distances
It is found that the lagged conditional probabilities show long-term memory for both the intereven times and interevent distances and that the memory functions obey scaling and decay slowly with time, while, at a characteristic time, the decay crossesover to a fast decay. Expand
Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California
We have initially developed a time-independent forecast for southern California by smoothing the locations of magnitude 2 and larger earthquakes. We show that using small m 2 earthquakes gives aExpand
Long-term memory in earthquakes and the distribution of interoccurrence times
We study seismic records in regimes of stationary seismic activity in Northern and Southern California. Our analysis suggests that the earthquakes are long-term power law correlated with aExpand
The ETAS model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEP experiment
This study investigates the basic properties of the recent shallow seismicity in Italy, through stochastic modeling and statistical methods. Assuming that earthquakes are the realization of aExpand
A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence
[1] We perform a retrospective forecast experiment on the 1992 Landers sequence comparing the predictive power of commonly used model frameworks for short-term earthquake forecasting. We compare aExpand
Memory in the occurrence of earthquakes.
It is found that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time tau0, such that small and largeRecurrence times tend to cluster in time, and the risk of encountering the next event within a certain time span after the last event depends significantly on the past. Expand
Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence
It is shown that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016–2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. Expand