Improved NCAA Basketball Tournament Modeling via Point Spread and Team Strength Information

  title={Improved NCAA Basketball Tournament Modeling via Point Spread and Team Strength Information},
  author={Bradley P. Carlin},
  journal={The American Statistician},
  • B. Carlin
  • Published 1996
  • Mathematics
  • The American Statistician
Abstract Several models for estimating the probability that a given team in an NCAA basketball tournament emerges as the regional champion were presented by Schwertman, Mc-Cready, and Howard. In this article we improve these probability models by taking advantage of external information concerning the relative strengths of the teams and the point spreads available at the start of the tournament for the first round games. The result is a collection of regional championship probabilities that are… 

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