Importation index of dengue to determine the most probable origin of importation.

Abstract

The three cases of dengue virus infection acquired in Madeira and exported to Belgium in 2012, as reported by Cnops et al. in the September 2014 issue of the Journal of Travel Medicine,1 underline the public health concern that dengue increasingly poses a risk to Europe, not only in terms of importation, but also in terms of subsequent establishment and potential further spread within Europe.2 Cnops et al. also described the phylogenetic tree and highlighted the close relationship of the Madeira isolate with genotype V isolates from South America.1 Properly annotated dengue sequencing data can be an important tool, which aids tracking the spread of dengue, particularly assisting in the identification of the probable origin of the virus importation. Our DengueTools research group3 has developed an additional tool to identify the origin of importation based on the fact that information on air traffic volume can be helpful in predicting the importation risk of vector-borne diseases.4,5 The potential for importation of dengue virus via viremic travelers is a function of dengue activity in the origin country and the volume of travelers exporting the virus from the origin country to the country of interest. Hence, one can use the following simple but crude calculation to determine the most probable country from which the virus could have been imported, which we coined the “importation index”:

DOI: 10.1111/jtm.12177

Cite this paper

@article{Quam2015ImportationIO, title={Importation index of dengue to determine the most probable origin of importation.}, author={Mikkel Brandon Quam and Annelies Wilder-Smith}, journal={Journal of travel medicine}, year={2015}, volume={22 1}, pages={72} }